Borno, Bayelsa, and Taraba Lead in Soaring Food Prices Despite Nigeria’s Inflation Drop — NBS Report
Despite a slight nationwide ease in Nigeria’s inflation rate for the second consecutive month, millions of Nigerians, especially in some states, are still reeling under the crushing weight of soaring food prices. According to the National Bureau of Statistics (NBS), states like Borno, Bayelsa, and Taraba recorded the highest year-on-year increases in food inflation in May 2025, showing a troubling regional disparity in economic relief.
This was revealed in the latest Consumer Price Index (CPI) report released by the NBS, which closely monitors changes in the prices of goods and services in Nigeria.
Borno Tops the Food Inflation Chart With 64.36%
In the newly published NBS report, Borno State, located in Nigeria’s Northeast, emerged as the worst-hit region with an alarming 64.36% increase in food prices compared to the same period in 2024. The situation in Borno is directly linked to longstanding insecurity, particularly the Boko Haram insurgency and other armed groups, which have disrupted farming, destroyed local markets, and displaced thousands of residents.
The NBS report stated:
“In May 2025, food inflation on a year-on-year basis was highest in Borno (64.36%), Bayelsa (39.85%), and Taraba (38.58%), while Katsina (6.90%), Rivers (9.18%), and Kwara (11.31%) recorded the slowest increases.”
This dramatic increase in food prices means that the cost of essential food items like rice, maize, yam, and vegetables has more than doubled in many parts of Borno. Many families can no longer afford basic meals, and malnutrition among children is reportedly rising in several communities.
Bayelsa and Taraba Also Suffer Harshly From Rising Food Costs
After Borno, the second-highest increase was recorded in Bayelsa State, which saw a food inflation rate of 39.85% year-on-year. Bayelsa, situated in Nigeria’s oil-rich Niger Delta, has had its own share of economic challenges. Frequent flooding, poor transportation networks, and infrastructural decay have contributed significantly to rising food prices. Although Bayelsa is rich in crude oil, its food supply relies heavily on imports from other states, making it vulnerable to price volatility.
Coming in third is Taraba State, located in the North-East, with a food inflation rate of 38.58%. Taraba has witnessed recurrent clashes between farmers and herders, which have disrupted agricultural activities. This has led to reduced food production and a hike in market prices for available food items.
Katsina, Rivers, and Kwara Record the Lowest Food Inflation
Interestingly, while some states are grappling with extreme spikes in food prices, others have managed to keep their food inflation rates relatively low. According to the NBS:
“Katsina (6.90%), Rivers (9.18%), and Kwara (11.31%) recorded the slowest increases [in food inflation].”
Katsina State, in the North-West, leads the states with the least food price increases. This may be partly due to enhanced security measures and agricultural programs that have helped stabilize food supply chains. Rivers State, a major oil-producing state in the South-South, also saw limited inflation growth, possibly due to its strong urban economy and access to imported food products.
Kwara State, located in the North-Central region, rounded off the list of states with the slowest food price increases. The relatively stable food inflation in these states could offer some lessons for other regions struggling with the same challenge.
National Food Inflation Drops Slightly to 21.14%
On a national level, there appears to be a glimmer of hope. The overall food inflation rate for Nigeria in May 2025 dropped slightly to 21.14%, down from 21.26% in April 2025. Though this 0.12 percentage point decrease may seem marginal, it indicates a positive movement in the right direction after months of relentless price surges.
However, while the year-on-year figure is falling, food inflation on a month-on-month basis actually increased to 2.19% in May, up from 2.06% in April. This means that, compared to April, prices of food in May still went up, albeit more slowly.
The NBS explained the reason behind the monthly rise:
“This increase can be attributed to rising average prices of key food items such as yam, ogbono (wild mango seed), cassava tubers, maize flour, fresh pepper, and sweet potatoes.”
Many of these items are staples in Nigerian households, especially in middle and low-income homes. The rising cost of such essential foods continues to stretch household budgets and push more people below the poverty line.
2025 vs. 2024: Why the Annual Inflation Drop Is Not What It Seems
Another key point in the NBS report is the comparison between May 2025 and May 2024. The sharp drop in the annual food inflation rate, from 40.66% in May 2024 to 21.14% in May 2025, is largely due to a change in the CPI base year. What this means is that the NBS has updated the reference year it uses to calculate inflation, which can make the figures appear lower than they might actually feel to consumers.
This technical adjustment can lead to misinterpretation. While the numbers suggest that inflation is easing, the reality in many Nigerian homes—especially in the North-East and Niger Delta—is quite different.
Nigeria’s Overall Headline Inflation Rate Also Declines
Beyond food prices, the general headline inflation rate, which includes all goods and services, also showed signs of easing. The NBS reported that Nigeria’s inflation rate dropped to 22.97% in May 2025, down from 23.71% in April 2025. This marks the second consecutive month of decline, with a 0.74 percentage point reduction.
The report further explained:
“On a year-on-year basis, the May 2025 headline inflation rate was 10.98 percentage points lower than the 33.95% recorded in May 2024.”
Again, this drop is partly due to the adjustment in the CPI base year, rather than a reflection of drastically improved economic conditions.
What This Means for Nigerian Households
Despite the reported decline in inflation rates, many Nigerians are yet to feel any real relief. Food remains the single largest driver of inflation in Nigeria, and in states like Borno, Bayelsa, and Taraba, the situation is growing more dire.
The economic reality for millions is still grim:
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Market prices for food continue to rise on a monthly basis.
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Unemployment remains high.
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Insecurity disrupts farming and food supply chains.
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Transportation costs, due to high fuel prices, further inflate the cost of food in rural and urban markets.
For a country where over 40% of the population lives below the poverty line, the continued rise in food prices threatens to deepen the hunger crisis and worsen the humanitarian situation, particularly in conflict-affected regions.
Conclusion: Statistics Offer Hope, But Reality Demands Action
While the National Bureau of Statistics (NBS) data suggests some progress in Nigeria’s fight against inflation, the pain at the marketplace tells a different story. The government must go beyond monitoring and reporting. Strategic interventions in agriculture, security, and infrastructure are urgently needed—especially in states like Borno, Bayelsa, and Taraba.
It’s only by addressing the root causes—like insecurity, flooding, poor infrastructure, and weak agricultural systems—that real progress can be made. Until then, many Nigerians will continue to struggle with high food prices, regardless of what the national inflation figures say.
