Poverty on the Rise: What the World Bank Sees for Nigeria’s Future
The World Bank has projected an increase in poverty levels in Nigeria, forecasting a rise of 3.6 percentage points by 2027. This projection was detailed in the Bank’s Africa’s Pulse report, released during the ongoing Spring Meetings of the International Monetary Fund (IMF) and the World Bank in Washington, DC.
The report paints a grim picture for poverty reduction in Nigeria, noting that while there may be slight economic improvements—particularly in the non-oil sector by late 2024—longstanding structural issues such as overdependence on natural resources and national instability are likely to hinder progress.
Nigeria, along with other resource-rich but fragile countries in Sub-Saharan Africa, is expected to experience worsening poverty, unlike more diversified economies in the region that are on track for faster reductions.
“Poverty in resource-rich, fragile countries—including large economies like Nigeria and the Democratic Republic of Congo—is projected to increase by 3.6 percentage points between 2022 and 2027,” the report stated.
Sub-Saharan Africa remains the epicenter of global extreme poverty, accounting for 80% of the world’s 695 million extreme poor in 2024. Half of the region’s 560 million extremely poor are concentrated in just four countries. In comparison, South Asia comprises 8% of the global extreme poor, while East Asia and the Pacific account for 2%, the Middle East and North Africa 5%, and Latin America and the Caribbean 3%.
The World Bank attributes the slow pace of poverty reduction in resource-dependent countries to declining oil revenues and weak fiscal frameworks. Meanwhile, countries with more diversified economies are benefiting from higher agricultural commodity prices, enabling stronger growth even amid fiscal pressures.
“This follows a well-established pattern whereby resource wealth, when combined with fragility or conflict, results in the highest poverty rates—averaging 46% in 2024, which is 13 percentage points higher than in non-fragile, resource-rich countries,” the report added.
To address these challenges, the World Bank has called on Nigeria and similar economies to improve fiscal management and build a more robust fiscal relationship with citizens. These reforms, it says, are essential for fostering inclusive development and achieving long-term poverty reduction.
